Playoff basketball is here!
I’ll get to the gist – I’ve always wanted to do some sort of playoff bible for people to use while they’re watching and so… that’s what this is.
General playoff statistics, breaking down and previewing every single 1st round series, and continuously UPDATING just so you have all the information at your disposal.
So, let’s do it.
GENERAL PLAYOFF STATISTICS:
- Teams that win game 1 of a seven-game series: 76.3% success rate (393-120)
- At home: 85.4% success rate (321-55)
- On the road: 52.6% success rate (72-65)
- Teams that win the first 2 games of a seven-game series: a 93.5% success rate (273-19)
- At home: 94% success rate (236-15)
- On the road: 84% success rate (21-4)
- Teams that win game 3 of a 1-1 seven-game series: 73.3% success rate (162-59)
- Teams that lead 2-1 in a best-of-seven-game series: 79.8% success rate (308-78)
- Teams that lead 3-0 in a seven-game series: 100% success rate (127-0)
- Teams that lead 3-1 in a seven-game series: 95.4% success rate (226-11)
- Teams that win game 5 of a 2-2 seven-game series: 82.8% success rate (164-34)
- Teams that lead 3-2 in a seven-game series: 84.8% success rate (251-45)
ROUND 2:
EASTERN CONFERENCE:
#5 NEW YORK KNICKS vs #8 MIAMI HEAT
Head-to-Head:
- Knicks won the series 3-1
- Knicks won the 3 games by an average margin of 4.3 points
- Heat one and only win on March 22nd – 127-120
- Last game played: March 29th – Knicks won 101-92
All-time playoff head-to-head:
- 5th time facing each other in the playoffs
- Faced each other 4 consecutive times from 1997-2000
- Last series: 2012 1st Round (Heat won 4-1)
- Heat lead all-time head-to-head record 15-14
Season Stats:
KNICKS:
- 4th Offensive Rating (117)
- 19th Defensive Rating (114.2)
- 7th Net Rating (+2.8)
- Post All-Star:
- 2nd Offensive Rating (120.6)
- 18th Defensive Rating (115.7)
- 7th Net Rating (+4.7)
- 7th true-shooting percentage (60.3%)
- 21st in pace (98.66)
- 14th in turnover percentage (13.7%)
- 11th in 3-pointers made (12.6)
- 19th in 3-point percentage (35.4%)
- 8th in free-throw rate (0.285)
HEAT:
- 25th Offensive Rating (112.3)
- 9th Defensive Rating (112.8)
- 21stNet Rating (-0.5)
- Post All-Star:
- 16th Offensive Rating (115.7)
- 22nd Defensive Rating (117.1)
- 21st Net Rating (-1.6)
- 21st true-shooting percentage (57.4%)
- 29th in pace (96.76)
- 13th in turnover percentage (13.8%)
- 17th in 3-pointers made (12)
- 27h in 3-point percentage (34.4%)
- 13th in free-throw rate (0.270)
Playoff Stats:
KNICKS:
- 13th offensive rating (107.3)
- 1st defensive rating (101.9)
- 4th net rating (+5.4)
- 16th in AST % (50.6%)
- 15th in TOV % (16.4%)
- 13th in pace (92.6)
- 16th in 3-point % (29.8%)
- 16th in 3PM (8.4)
- 1st in OREB % (39.4%)
- 15th in TS% (52.4%)
- 2nd in FTR (0.303)
HEAT:
- 2nd in offensive rating (119)
- 9th in defensive rating (114.2)
- 5th in net rating (+4.8)
- 13th in AST % (54.1%)
- 11th in TOV % (14.2%)
- 3rd in pace (101.98)
- 1st in 3-point % (45%)
- 3rd in 3PM (15.4)
- 15th in OREB % (21.3%)
- 1st in TS% (62.7%)
- 12th in FTR (0.229)
3 KEYS TO THE SERIES:
- HEATY SHOOTING: The Heat shot 11% from behind the arc in round 1 against the Milwaukee Bucks compared to what they shot through 82 games in the regular season. If Miami can stay hot from three — it can help even out the math battle against a better offensive team in the Knicks.
- BOX OUT: The Knicks absolutely dominated the Cavs in round one by grabbing nearly 40% of all possible offensive rebounds. The Heat lost their 7-8 play-in game against the Hawks because of some lackluster defensive rebounding. The possession battle will be crucial again.
- THE BUTLER VS THE BRUNSON: Jimmy Butler leads all players in the playoffs in points, he absolutely scorched the defensive-minded Bucks. Jalen Brunson did much of the same against the #1 defense in the Cavaliers. But both teams should pose a unique threat defensively at the point of attack to try and contain both Butler and Brunson. In these Iso-heavy playoffs, it can mean the difference in the series.
NOTABLE STORYLINES:
- Julius Randle re-injured his ankle in Game 5 against the Cavaliers — so we’ll see if he’s a go for Game 1 on Sunday.
- Historic rivalry: I’d recommend reading up on the Knicks-Heat battles in the late 1990s. Pat Riley left the Knicks in 1995 to coach the upstart Heat. Years later, in 1999, the 8th-seeded Knicks would knock off Riley’s 1st-seeded Heat and go on to the NBA Finals. Ironically, the Heat did the same to the Bucks this year.
- Jimmy Butler vs Tom Thibodeau: A rivalry riddled with admiration — two maniacs who love the game with a burning passion and will fight to win with that same intensity. Between Chicago and Minnesota, Thibodeau and Butler developed a bond that ended poorly when Butler requested a trade from Thibodeau’s Timberwolves in 2018.
- Both Thibodeau and Jalen Brunson’s dad, Rick Brunson were there to take part in the Heat-Knicks rivalries of the 1990s.
- The Garden vs Jimmy Butler: Knicks fans love to pick a villain on the opposing team and there’s no better player to choose than Jimmy Buckets and his exploits.
PREDICTION: Knicks in 7 (but honestly, I have no clue this is a toss-up)
#2 BOSTON CELTICS vs #3 PHILADELPHIA 76ERS
Head-to-Head:
- Celtics won the season series 3-1
- Celtics won all 3 games by an average of 6.3 points
- Last meeting: April 4th – Sixers won 103-101
All-time playoff head-to-head:
- 23rd time facing each other in the playoffs (5th time since 2000)
- Last series: 2020 1st round: Celtics swept Sixers 4-0
- Celtics lead all-time playoff head-to-head 62-47
Season Stats:
CELTICS:
- 2nd Offensive Rating (117.3)
- 2nd Defensive Rating (110.6)
- 1st Net Rating (+6.7)
- Post All-Star:
- 5th Offensive Rating (118.3)
- 2nd Defensive Rating (110.4)
- 1st Net Rating (+7.9)
- 5th true-shooting percentage (60%)
- 20th in pace (99.15)
- 6th 3-point percentage (37.7%)
- 2nd in 3-pointers made (16)
- 27th in free-throw rate (0.243)
- 7th in turnover percentage (13.3%)
SIXERS:
- 3rd Offensive Rating (117)
- 8th Defensive Rating (112.7)
- 3rd Net Rating (+4.4)
- Post All-Star:
- 3rd Offensive Rating (120)
- 17th Defensive Rating (115)
- 5th Net Rating (+5.1)
- 2nd true-shooting percentage (60.8%)
- 27th pace (97.44%)
- 1st in 3-point percentage (38.7%)
- 12th in 3-pointers made (12.6%)
- 1st in free-throw rate (0.300)
- 15th in turnover percentage (13.9%)
Playoff stats:
CELTICS:
- 3rd offensive rating (118.8)
- 10th defensive rating (114.3)
- 6th net rating (+4.5)
- 9th in AST % (59.2%)
- 3rd in TOV % (12.6%)
- 5th in pace (101.67)
- 4th in 3-point % (40.6%)
- 1st in 3PM (15.8)
- 13th in OREB % (23.6%)
- 2nd in TS% (62.2%)
- 14th in FTR (0.183)
SIXERS:
- 6th offensive rating (114.3)
- 2nd defensive rating (102.9)
- 1st net rating (+11.8)
- 11th in AST % (56.5%)
- 14th in TOV % (14.6%)
- 16th in pace (90.5)
- 3rd in 3-point % (40.6%)
- 6th in 3PM (13.5)
- 2nd in OREB % (36.8%)
- 9th in TS% (56.3%)
- 15th in FTR (0.178)
3 KEYS TO THE SERIES:
- The pace of play: The Celtics like to push the tempo, and the Sixers like to grind it to a halt. It’ll be a constant push and pull between the two. Who dictates the pace of the games can ultimately control how it plays out.
- Sixers Point-of-attack: James Harden and Tyrese Maxey are going to have their work cut out for them on defense. The Celtics offensive scheme is predicated on dribble penetration and drive-n-kick so they’ll have to bend but not break in terms of who they let get downhill and how quickly they rotate over to shooters.
- Shooting: Both teams have been great all year from behind the arc — who will be better?
NOTABLE STORYLINES:
- Embiid’s health: Embiid sustained a knee injury against the Nets and will wear a brace for their matchup against the Celtics. Most of this series depends on his availability and health.
- Tatum vs Embiid: Doesn’t get much better than this superstar-wise. These two have had their fair share of battles in the regular season and now they get to do it on a massive stage.
- Best of the East: With the Bucks eliminated the Sixers and Celtics have to both feel good about their chances of making it to the finals — there will be pressure on both teams to break through
- Al Horford’s revenge tour continues: First the Hawks and now the Sixers, Al Horford is just playing his former teams
PREDICTION: Celtics in 6
WESTERN CONFERENCE:
#1 DENVER NUGGETS vs #4 PHOENIX SUNS
Head-to-Head:
- Regular season series tied 2-2
- Nuggets won one game by 20+ and another by 3
- Suns won 2 games by an average margin of 5.5 points
- Last game played: April 6th – Suns won 119-115
All-time playoff head-to-head:
- 5th time facing in the playoffs
- Last time: 2021 West Semi’s – Suns won in 4
- Suns lead all-time playoff head-to-head 10-3
Season Stats:
SUNS:
- 14th Offensive Rating (114.6)
- 7th Defensive Rating (112.3)
- 9th Net Rating (+2.2)
- Post All-Star:
- 10th Offensive Rating (117.2)
- 10th Defensive Rating (113)
- 8th Net Rating (+4.2)
- 24th in true-shooting percentage (57%)
- 22nd in pace (98.83)
- 7th in 3-point percentage (37.4%)
- 13th in 3-pointers made (12.2)
- 28th in free-throw rate (0.241)
- 10th in turnover percentage (13.6%)
NUGGETS:
- 5th Offensive Rating (116.8)
- 15th Defensive Rating (113.5)
- 6th Net Rating (+3.3)
- Post All-Star:
- 17th Offensive Rating (114.7)
- 15th Defensive Rating (114.4)
- 16th Net Rating (+0.4)
- 3rd in true-shooting percentage (60.1%)
- 24th in pace (98.74)
- 4th in 3-point percentage (37.9%)
- 18th in 3-pointers made (11.8)
- 20th in free-throw rate (0.259)
- 23rd in turnover percentage (14.7%)
Playoff stats:
SUNS:
- 1st offensive rating (122.5)
- 12th defensive rating (116.3)
- 3rd net rating (+6.2)
- 7th in AST % (59.6%)
- 1st in TOV % (12.2%)
- 9th in pace (99.5)
- 2nd in 3-point % (40.7%)
- 15th in 3PM (9.6)
- 5th in OREB % (31.8%)
- 3rd in TS% (61.4%)
- 1st in FTR (0.333)
NUGGETS:
- 4th offensive rating (117.2)
- 6th defensive rating (109.6)
- 2nd net rating (+7.7)
- 8th in AST % (59.2%)
- 2nd in TOV % (12.3%)
- 11th in pace (94.82)
- 2nd in 3-point % (40.7%)
- 15th in 3PM (9.6)
- 7th in OREB % (30.7%)
- 4th in TS% (58.6%)
- 7th in FTR (0.248)
3 KEYS TO THE SERIES:
- Suns Depth: The Suns bench averaged 10 minutes through their first playoff games and are a -1.1 in those minutes. Booker and Durant lead the playoffs in minutes per game. The Nuggets are a much better team than the Clippers — is the heavy load and low bench minutes sustainable for the Suns?
- Defensive Matchups: Who guards who will dictate which advantages are available to either team. Which Nugget is the primary on Booker? How about Durant? How do things flow from there? How high do they play Jokic in pick-n-rolls? Do they consider drop coverage at all? Do the Suns double Jokic or do they trust Ayton in single coverage? So many questions, it’ll be exciting.
- Jokic-less minutes: The Nuggets are +13 when Jokic is on the court and -14 when he’s off. In the 1st round the Nuggets did well without Jokic (+24 in the 60 minutes without him) — but how does that look against a much more talented Suns team? How do the Nuggets stagger their starters to keep things humming?
NOTABLE STORYLINES:
- Suns In Four: Off the court the “Suns in 4” guy made a name for himself in that Nuggets series in 2021 – does he re-appear?
- Booker vs Jokic: These two have gotten into it before and I wouldn’t be surprised if it happens again.
PREDICTION: Nuggets In 7
#6 GOLDEN STATE WARRIORS vs #7 LOS ANGELES LAKERS
Head-to-Head:
- Lakers won the season series 3-1
- Only Warriors win came on opening night: 123-109
- Lakers won the 3 games by an average margin of 9 points
- Last game played: March 5th – Lakers won 113-105
Playoff head-to-head:
- 8th time playing each other in the playoffs
- Haven’t faced off in the post-season since 1991
- Lakers lead all-time playoff head-to-head 24-11
Season stats:
WARRIORS:
- 10th Offensive Rating (118.6)
- 14th Defensive Rating (113.4)
- 11th Net Rating (+1.7)
- Post All-Star:
- 8th Offensive Rating (117.5)
- 7th Defensive Rating (111.6)
- 2nd Net Rating (+5.8)
- 4th true-shooting percentage (60%)
- 1st in pace (102.54)
- 29th in turnover percentage (15.8%)
- 1st in 3-pointers made (16.6)
- 2nd in 3-point percentage (38.5%)
- 30th in free-throw rate (0.224)
LAKERS:
- 19th Offensive Rating (113.9)
- 12th Defensive Rating (113.2)
- 16th Net Rating (+0.7)
- Post All-Star:
- 14th Offensive Rating (116.2)
- 4th Defensive Rating (111.3)
- 6th Net Rating (+4.9)
- 17th true-shooting percentage (58.2%)
- 4th in pace (101.92)
- 11th in turnover percentage (13.7%)
- 24th in 3-pointers made (10.8)
- 25th in 3-point percentage (31.2%)
- 2nd in free-throw rate (0.2999)
Playoff stats:
WARRIORS:
- 9th offensive rating (111.6)
- 6th defensive rating (109.3)
- 7th net rating (+2.2)
- 2nd in AST % (64.7%)
- 12th in TOV % (13.9%)
- 1st in pace (103.93)
- 10th in 3-point % (32.8%)
- 6th in 3PM (13.6)
- 7th in OREB % (30%)
- 9th in TS% (56.2%)
- 4th in FTR (0.273)
LAKERS:
- 10th offensive rating (110)
- 1st defensive rating (102.8)
- 3rd net rating (+7.2)
- 8th in AST % (58.7%)
- 14th in TOV % (14.5%)
- 6th in pace (100.18)
- 14th in 3-point % (31%)
- 13th in 3PM (10.8)
- 6th in OREB % (30.4%)
- 10th in TS% (56%)
- 8th in FTR (0.239)
3 KEYS TO THE SERIES:
- Anthony Davis: The Warriors did an excellent job against Domantas Sabonis all series. Kevon Looney and Draymond Green will have their work cut out for them against a much more offensive-minded Anthony Davis, though. How much Davis can impose his will in the interior will dictate much of this series.
- Lakers Inconsistencies: The Lakers had a hot-n-cold 1st round series with the Grizzlies didn’t reassure us about which type of Lakers team we’ll get in round 1. Their bench unit hasn’t been the best, the rotations have been wonky and on any given night, you’re not sure who is going to show up. That’s a recipe for disaster against this Warriors team.
- Who the hell guards Steph: The Lakers point-of-attack defense has been abysmal, they’ve relied on Davis’s rim protection a lot. But… that’s not going to cut it against Steph Curry.
NOTABLE STORYLINES:
- Steph vs LeBron but not in the Finals: Familiar foes, 4 straight NBA finals matchups against each other, numerous regular season battles — it’s always a pleasure when these two face off.
- Draymond vs LeBron: Two off-court friends who have both shared their appreciation for one another’s games. But that admiration might not matter when things tip-off.
- Television ratings: Two of the biggest markets in basketball, two of the biggest names in basketball — this series will be watched, talked about, dissected and discussed everywhere.
- D’Angelo’s old team: Russell’s tenure with the Warriors was short-lived but he is playing against his former ball club.
PREDICTION: Warriors In 6
ROUND 1:
#1 MILWAUKEE BUCKS vs #8 MIAMI HEAT:
Head-to-head:
- Split the season series 2-2
- Heat lost 2 games by an average of 18.5 points
- Bucks lost 2 games by an average of 11 points
- Last game played: February 24th, 2023: Bucks won 128-99
All-Time Playoff head-to-head:
- 4th time they face off in NBA playoff history
- Last time facing off in the playoffs: 2021 Eastern Conference Playoffs Round 1 (Bucks won 4-0)
- Heat lead all-time series 8-5
Season stats:
- BUCKS:
- 15th Offensive Rating (114.3)
- 4th Defensive Rating (110.9)
- 5th Net Rating (+3.4)
- Post All-Star:
- 6th Offensive Rating (118.1)
- 14th Defensive Rating (114.1)
- 10th Net Rating (+4.1)
- 4th in true-shooting percentage (60.8)
- 3rd in pace (102.68)
- 10th in 3-point percentage (36.8%)
- 4th in 3-pointers made (14.8)
- 25h in free-throw rate (0.248)
- 19th in turnover percentage (14.3)
- HEAT:
- 25th Offensive Rating (112.3)
- 9th Defensive Rating (112.8)
- 21stNet Rating (-0.5)
- Post All-Star:
- 16th Offensive Rating (115.7)
- 22nd Defensive Rating (117.1)
- 21st Net Rating (-1.6)
- 21st true-shooting percentage (57.4%)
- 29th in pace (96.76)
- 13th in turnover percentage (13.8%)
- 17th in 3-pointers made (12)
- 27h in 3-point percentage (34.4%)
- 13th in free-throw rate (0.270)
3 KEYS TO THE SERIES:
- Aggressive Bam Adebayo: As is with every Miami Heat series, the prevailing question will be how much Bam will be looking for his own shot and pressuring the defense. The Heat are at their best when Bam is scoring the ball.
- How Much Zone: The Heat run more zone than any team in the league, how much they run and how often they run will be key to beating Milwaukee.
- Heat Shooting: Duncan Robinson, where art thou? The Heat have not been a good shooting team all season and the way the Bucks play defense, they will have to flip the switch quickly if they want to have an advantage.
PREDICTION: Bucks In 5
#2 BOSTON CELTICS vs #7 ATLANTA HAWKS
Head-to-head:
- Celtics swept the season series 3-0
- Hawks lost all 3 games by an average of 13.3 points
- Last game played: April 9th, 2023: Celtics won by 6
All-Time Playoff head-to-head:
- 9th time teams have faced each other in the playoffs since the Hawks moved to Atlanta (13th time total)
- Last faced off in the 2016 Eastern Conference Playoffs Round 1 (Hawks won 4-2)
- Celtics lead head-to-head playoff record 42-29
Season stats:
- CELTICS
- 2nd Offensive Rating (117.3)
- 2nd Defensive Rating (110.6)
- 1st Net Rating (+6.7)
- Post All-Star:
- 5th Offensive Rating (118.3)
- 2nd Defensive Rating (110.4)
- 1st Net Rating (+7.9)
- 5th true-shooting percentage (60%)
- 20th in pace (99.15)
- 6th 3-point percentage (37.7%)
- 2nd in 3-pointers made (16)
- 27th in free-throw rate (0.243)
- 7th in turnover percentage (13.3%)
- HAWKS:
- 7th Offensive Rating (115.5)
- 22nd Defensive Rating (115.4)
- 19th Net Rating (+0.1)
- Post All-Star:
- 4th Offensive Rating (120.1)
- 25th Defensive Rating (118.2)
- Net Rating (+1.8)
- 19th true-shooting percentage (57.9%)
- 6th in pace (101.56)
- 3rd in turnover percentage (12.6%)
- 26th in 3-pointers made (10.8)
- 21st in 3-point percentage (35.2%)
- 26th in free-throw rate (0.244)
3 KEYS TO THE SERIES:
- The Size Factor: The Hawks effectively dominated the rebounding battle against the Miami Heat in the 7-8 play-in to clinch a playoff spot and it was thanks to dominant outings for Onyeka Okongwu, John Collins, and Clint Capela. The Celtics are a much bigger team than the Heat with Robert Williams, Al Horford, and Jayson Tatum as their front-court. If the Hawks bigs can match the Celtics on the boards – the series could get interesting.
- Trae and Dejounte versus Celtics POA: The Hawks’ star guards had a field day versus the Heat’s lackluster point-of-attack defense. They might be in for a rude awakening against the Celtics who have Marcus Smart, Derrick White, and Malcolm Brogdon to throw out against Trae Young and Dejounte Murray
- Hawks Supporting Cast: The Hawks bench put up 53 points against the Heat on Tuesday – what sort of contributions they get from Saddiq Bey, Bogdan Bogdanovic, etc could be the make-or-break factor.
NOTABLE STORYLINES:
- Marcus Smart and Trae Young have had their fair share of on-court spats – this could get heated between the two guards.
- Al Horford is facing off against the team where he started his career in 2007. Should be an interesting welcome-home party.
PREDICTION: Celtics In 6
#3 PHILADELPHIA 76ERS vs #6 BROOKLYN NETS
Head-to-head:
- Sixers swept the season series 4-0
- Won by an average of 11.25 points
- Last game played April 9th: Sixers won 134-105
All-Time Playoff head-to-head:
- 4th playoff matchup in NBA history
- Sixers lead playoff head-to-head 8-4 all-time
- Last playoff matchup: 2019 1st round series: Sixers won in 5
Season stats:
- SIXERS:
- 3rd Offensive Rating (117)
- 8th Defensive Rating (112.7)
- 3rd Net Rating (+4.4)
- Post All-Star:
- 3rd Offensive Rating (120)
- 17th Defensive Rating (115)
- 5th Net Rating (+5.1)
- 2nd true-shooting percentage (60.8%)
- 27th pace (97.44%)
- 1st in 3-point percentage (38.7%)
- 12th in 3-pointers made (12.6%)
- 1st in free-throw rate (0.300)
- 15th in turnover percentage (13.9%)
- NETS:
- 12th Offensive Rating (114.6)
- 16th Defensive Rating (113.5)
- 14th Net Rating (+1.1)
- Post All-Star:
- 24th Offensive Rating (112.6)
- 13th Defensive Rating (113.8)
- 19th Net Rating (-1.3)
- 7th true-shooting percentage (60.8%)
- 19th in pace (98.82)
- 9th in turnover percentage (12.9%)
- 8th in 3-pointers made (13.3)
- 20th in 3-point percentage (35%)
- 18th in free-throw rate (0.2600)
3 KEYS TO THE SERIES:
- Joel Embiid’s playmaking: You’ll find this ends up being a key in almost any Philadelphia 76ers featured series, but especially this one. Embiid is 7 feet tall and 280 pounds. Nets Center Nic Claxton? 215 pounds. That’s going to be one tough matchup for Claxton to take on in single coverage. This means the Nets will have to throw tons of bodies at Embiid, and that’s going to open up the potential MVP’s playmaking game in a major way.
- Nets Switchability: The good thing about Brooklyn’s new-look core is that they can also throw a wrench in some of the things the Sixers like to do on offense with their switchability on the perimeter. Not to say that the Nets should switch everything (see point #1) but if you can slow down the Harden/Embiid PnR by taking away option A-to-C, you’re going to cause some problems for Philly. With Dorian Finney-Smith, Mikal Bridges, Cameron Johnson, and crew, the Nets have the ability to do that.
- The Mikal Bridges show: In his 27 games as a Brooklyn Net, Bridges is putting up 26 points on 48-38-90 shooting splits. He’s looked like a real star-level player in his first go as a team’s #1 option and ultimately, this playoff run for Brooklyn is about getting him the opportunity to showcase his skills and see where he’s at. The Sixers should be a great challenge for him. Maybe he can steal a game for the Nets. Let’s see if he’s up for it.
NOTABLE STORYLINES:
- James Harden versus the team he requested a trade from less than a year ago.
- Mikal Bridges versus his hometown team that drafted him and traded him on draft night
- Ben Simmons won’t play but he will technically face his former team.
PREDICTION: Sixers in 5
#4 CLEVELAND CAVALIERS vs #5 NEW YORK KNICKS
Head-to-head:
- Knicks beat the Cavs 3-1 in the season series
- Knicks won all 3 games by an average of 9 points
- Last game played: March 31st, 2023: Knicks won 130-116
All-Time Playoff head-to-head:
- 4th time in NBA history they’ve faced in the playoffs
- Last time they faced was the 1996 Eastern Conference 1st Round (Knicks won 3-0)
- Knicks lead all-time head-to-head in the playoffs 8-1
Season stats:
- CAVS:
- 8th Offensive Rating (115.5)
- 1st Defensive Rating (109.9)
- 2nd Net Rating (+5.6)
- Post All-Star:
- 13th Offensive Rating (116.8)
- 6th Defensive Rating (111.6)
- 4th Net Rating (+5.2)
- 16h in true-shooting percentage (58.5%)
- 27th in pace (97.07)
- 12th in 3-point percentage (36.7%)
- 19th in 3-pointers made (11.6)
- 16th in free-throw rate (0.264)
- 7th in turnover percentage (12.1%)
- KNICKS:
- 4th Offensive Rating (117)
- 19th Defensive Rating (114.2)
- 7th Net Rating (+2.8)
- Post All-Star:
- 2nd Offensive Rating (120.6)
- 18th Defensive Rating (115.7)
- 7th Net Rating (+4.7)
- 7th true-shooting percentage (60.3%)
- 21st in pace (98.66)
- 14th in turnover percentage (13.7%)
- 11th in 3-pointers made (12.6)
- 19th in 3-point percentage (35.4%)
- 8th in free-throw rate (0.285)
3 KEYS TO THE SERIES:
- Knicks Isolation Scoring: The Knicks were 4th in isolation frequency this season with Julius Randle and Jalen Brunson in the top 30 in Iso’s. They’ve been incredible as isolation scorers all season (Randle – 0.97 PPP, Brunson – 1.1 PPP) but is that a reliable source of offense in the playoffs?
- The Cavaliers towering big-men: That isolation scoring is put more into question when you factor in that Jarrett Allen and Evan Mobley will be the back-line help on any isolation possessions the Knicks run. Can Brunson and Randle find a way to score despite not being able to put pressure on the rim?
- Mobley Juice: At times this season, the Cavaliers’ offense became a little one-track-minded, with everything flowing through the hands of either Donovan Mitchell or Darius Garland. They haven’t been able to find a consistent “Plan C” to go to but maybe this is the series for Mobley to show off his improved offensive touch.
NOTABLE STORYLINES:
- Donovan Mitchell told reporters earlier this season that he thought he would be a New York Knick, instead, he’s a Cavalier. This is essentially the Donovan Mitchell Bowl.
- Julius Randle sustained a sprained ankle injury a couple of weeks ago and the latest as of the Knicks practice on Wednesday is that he has not been cleared to play. Randle is expected to be available at some point in the series but if he’s not ready for Game 1 on Saturday, the Knicks will struggle without their All-Star forward.
PREDICTION: Cavaliers In 7
WESTERN CONFERENCE:
#1 DENVER NUGGETS vs #8 MINNESOTA TIMBERWOLVES
Head-to-head:
- Split the season series 2-2
- Wolves won 2 games by an average of 21.5 points
- Nuggets won 2 games by an average of 19 points
- Last game played: February 7th, 2023: Nuggets won 146-112
All-Time Playoff head-to-head:
- 2nd time they’re facing off in the playoffs
- Last time they played was the 2004 Western Conference 1st Round (Wolves won 4-1)
Season stats:
- NUGGETS:
- 5th Offensive Rating (116.8)
- 15th Defensive Rating (113.5)
- 6th Net Rating (+3.3)
- Post All-Star:
- 17th Offensive Rating (114.7)
- 15th Defensive Rating (114.4)
- 16th Net Rating (+0.4)
- 3rd in true-shooting percentage (60.1%)
- 24th in pace (98.74)
- 4th in 3-point percentage (37.9%)
- 18th in 3-pointers made (11.8)
- 20th in free-throw rate (0.259)
- 23rd in turnover percentage (14.7%)
- TIMBERWOLVES:
- 23rd Offensive Rating (113.3)
- 10th Defensive Rating (113.1)
- 18th Net Rating (+0.2)
- Post All-Star:
- 22nd Offensive Rating (113.5)
- 12th Defensive Rating (113.3)
- 17th Net Rating (+0.2)
- 8th true-shooting percentage (59.2%)
- 7th in pace (101.55)
- 25th in turnover percentage (15%)
- 14th in 3-pointers made (12.2)
- 13th in 3-point percentage (36.5%)
- 12th in free-throw rate (0.271)
3 KEYS TO THE SERIES:
- Jokic Single Coverage: If Gobert is back and ready to play, do the Timberwolves feel comfortable putting him in single coverage against Jokic? If not, do they send help, and how often?
- KAT at the 5: The Timberwolves have looked better all year with KAT at the 5 and no other big man clogging the paint. How does their 5-out offense look against the Nuggets’ defense?
- Who Guards Ant: I’m just curious if Aaron Gordon gets the assignment first or do they throw someone smaller on him like KCP? If so, who else gets the assignment later down the road?
NOTABLE STORYLINES:
- Wolves President of Basketball Operations Tim Connelly just left the Nuggets for the Timberwolves and made the big-time acquisition of Rudy Gobert. This is a coming home party but also a litmus test for his new club.
PREDICTION: Nuggets In 5
#2 MEMPHIS GRIZZLIES vs #7 LOS ANGELES LAKERS
Head-to-head:
- Lakers won the season series 2-1
- Lakers won both games by an average of 5 points
- Last game played: March 7th, 2023: Lakers won 112-103
All-Time Playoff head-to-head:
- Never played against one another in the playoffs
Season stats:
- GRIZZLIES
- 11th Offensive Rating (114.7)
- 3rd Defensive Rating (110.7)
- 4th Net Rating (+4)
- Post All-Star:
- 12th Offensive Rating (116.9)
- 9th Defensive Rating (112.8)
- 9th Net Rating (+4.1)
- 25th in true-shooting percentage (57%)
- 8th in pace (101.5)
- 23rd in 3-point percentage (35.1%)
- 16th in 3-pointers made (12)
- 19th in free-throw rate (0.259)
- 9th in turnover percentage (13.3%)
- LAKERS:
- 19th Offensive Rating (113.9)
- 12th Defensive Rating (113.2)
- 16th Net Rating (+0.7)
- Post All-Star:
- 14th Offensive Rating (116.2)
- 4th Defensive Rating (111.3)
- 6th Net Rating (+4.9)
- 17th true-shooting percentage (58.2%)
- 4th in pace (101.92)
- 11th in turnover percentage (13.7%)
- 24th in 3-pointers made (10.8)
- 25th in 3-point percentage (31.2%)
- 2nd in free-throw rate (0.2999)
3 KEYS TO THE SERIES:
- Jaren Jackson Jr: The potential DPOY is going to be the X-Factor throughout the playoffs for the Grizzlies, not just in this series, but this matchup poses a very unique problem for Memphis’s front court. With no Steven Adams or Brandon Clarke, the Grizzlies are missing bodies that they can throw out at LeBron James and Anthony Davis. The Lakers like to put pressure on the rim consistently. Jaren Jackson Jr likes to contest (and block) a lot of shots and that could lead to an already foul-prone player getting into more foul trouble. How effective Jackson can be defensively against the Lakers stars without fouling will be key.
- Lakers Point-Of-Attack Defense: The Lakers don’t have a ton of stout perimeter defenders. Between Ja Morant, Desmond Bane, and Tyus Jones, the Lakers guard in Austin Reaves, D’Angelo Russell, Dennis Schroeder, and Malik Beasley will have their hands full. None of those guys can throw a wrench in the rim pressure Morant can provide, or the pick-n-roll playmaking of Jones, and none of them are great at chasing shooters like Bane through a bunch of screening actions. The Grizzlies guards, in theory, should have a field day against the Lakers.
- Anthony Davis: Similar to Jackson Jr, the key to the Lakers’ playoff success will be their towering big man in the middle. Davis is having a stellar season as Los Angeles’s primary center, dominating in the paint on offense and defense. The Lakers’ biggest advantage against the Grizzlies, lies in that. How effective he is, ultimately will be the deciding factor of this series.
NOTABLE STORYLINES:
- Dillon Brooks recently said he wants the Grizzlies to “go through the Lakers” and the bruising, enigmatic Grizzlies forward will have a lot of opportunities to trash-talk throughout the series.
- Will we get a Shannon Sharpe courtside appearance?
- Last season, LeBron James got really mad at Desmond Bane for talking trash throughout a regular season Grizzlies-Lakers game. There’s animosity there.
PREDICTION: Lakers In 6
#3 SACRAMENTO KINGS vs #6 GOLDEN STATE WARRIORS
Head-to-head:
- Warriors won the season series 3-1
- Won all 3 games by an average of 10 points
- Last game played: April 7th, 2023: Warriors won 119-97
All-Time Playoff head-to-head:
- Never played in the playoffs against one another
Season stats:
- KINGS:
- 1st Offensive Rating (118.6)
- 24th Defensive Rating (116)
- 8th Net Rating (+2.6)
- Post All-Star:
- 1st Offensive Rating (121.6)
- 24th Defensive Rating (117.8)
- 11th Net Rating (+3.7)
- 1st in true-shooting percentage (60.8)
- 12th in pace (100.99)
- 9th in 3-point percentage (36.9%)
- 5th in 3-pointers made (13.8)
- 9th in free-throw rate (0.284)
- 6th in turnover percentage (13.3%)
- WARRIORS:
- 10th Offensive Rating (118.6)
- 14th Defensive Rating (113.4)
- 11th Net Rating (+1.7)
- Post All-Star:
- 8th Offensive Rating (117.5)
- 7th Defensive Rating (111.6)
- 2nd Net Rating (+5.8)
- 4th true-shooting percentage (60%)
- 1st in pace (102.54)
- 29th in turnover percentage (15.8%)
- 1st in 3-pointers made (16.6)
- 2nd in 3-point percentage (38.5%)
- 30th in free-throw rate (0.224)
3 KEYS TO THE SERIES:
- Options D-Z For Sacramento: The Kings officially have the best offense in NBA history. How does that look in a playoff series when teams are game-planning and actively trying to take away options A, B, and C? When the Warriors switch a Sabonis/Huerter DHO, or when they put Wiggins on Fox to make those PnR’s a little harder, how do the Kings respond? How do Keegan Murray, Malik Monk, and crew help provide some counters?
- Draft Day, A-Wiggins: Andrew Wiggins has missed quite a considerable amount of time this season (prayers out to him and his family) but he’s going to be thrust into a playoff environment. How does he look, conditioning-wise? Is he still able to be the Warriors’ primary defender on their opponents’ stars?
- Offense-Defense give-n-take for Kings: The Kings’ best offensive players aren’t necessarily their best defensive players. How much will Mike Brown sacrifice some offensive juice to give more playing time to guys like Davion Mitchell and, dare I say, Kessler Edwards? Finding a perfect balance will be impossible, but finding some sort of balance will be key to stopping the Warriors.
NOTABLE STORYLINES:
- Mike Brown spent the last 6 seasons as an assistant for Golden State. In his first season as Head Coach of the Kings, Brown has implemented offensive schemes that are eerily similar to what the Warriors run, with a combination of dribble-hand-offs and a motion-heavy offense.
- Harrison Barnes will face off against his former team after a rather rough end to his tenure with the Warriors. He didn’t even invite Draymond Green to his wedding.
- The Northern California rivalry: You just have to take the I-80W from San Francisco to Sacramento for less than 2 hours to get to the Golden 1 Center. There will be tons of Kings fans in the Golden State and vice versa. The fan rivalry will be amazing.
PREDICTION: Warriors In 6
#4 PHOENIX SUNS vs #5 LOS ANGELES CLIPPERS
Head-to-head:
- Teams tied the season series 2-2
- The Clippers won 2 games by an average of 7 points
- The Suns won 2 games by an average of 16.5 points
- Last game played: April 9th, 2023: Clippers won 119-114
All-Time Playoff head-to-head:
- 3rd time they’re facing each other in the playoffs
- The last time was the 2021 Western Conference Finals (Suns won 4-2)
- Suns lead the all-time series 8-5
Season stats:
- SUNS:
- 14th Offensive Rating (114.6)
- 7th Defensive Rating (112.3)
- 9th Net Rating (+2.2)
- Post All-Star:
- 10th Offensive Rating (117.2)
- 10th Defensive Rating (113)
- 8th Net Rating (+4.2)
- 24th in true-shooting percentage (57%)
- 22nd in pace (98.83)
- 7th in 3-point percentage (37.4%)
- 13th in 3-pointers made (12.2)
- 28th in free-throw rate (0.241)
- 10th in turnover percentage (13.6%)
- CLIPPERS:
- 17th Offensive Rating (114)
- 17th Defensive Rating (113.6)
- 17th Net Rating (+0.4)
- Post All-Star:
- 9th Offensive Rating (117.4)
- 20th Defensive Rating (116.4)
- 15th Net Rating (+1)
- 11th true-shooting percentage (58.8%)
- 21st pace (98.84)
- 18th in turnover percentage (14.3%)
- 10th in 3-pointers made (12.7)
- 3rd in 3-point percentage (38.1%)
- 11th in free-throw rate (0.278)
3 KEYS TO THE SERIES:
- Clippers Depth: With No Paul George for this 1st round matchup, the Clippers’ abundant depth will become all that more crucial. Can Norman Powell, Tre Mann, Eric Gordon, Russell Westbrook, and even Bones Hyland chip in to combine and try and replicate some of the same production George gave you? It’s crucial.
- Suns Depth: As far as I’m concerned, the Suns have 4 trustworthy playoff players. If they can get anything out of Josh Okogie, TJ Warren, Torrey Craig, and Cameron Payne, it will be a huge plus and probably enough to make them the all-out favorites in the West.
- Clippers defensive approach: When Durant and Booker have both been healthy, teams have decided to load up on the two Suns wing scorers and force the ball out of their hands. Will the Clippers take the same approach? Who will Leonard guard? And who on the Clippers ends up guarding the other?
NOTABLE STORYLINES:
- A rematch from the 2021 Western Conference Finals, but this time without Paul George and with Kawhi Leonard.
- Chris Paul facing off against his former team the LA Clippers
- Kevin Durant versus Kawhi Leonard for the first time since the 2019 NBA Finals
- Russell Westbrook versus Kevin Durant in a playoff series for the first time ever.
PREDICTION: Suns In 6
